By on July 17, 2010

Matt’s 2010 Fantasy Football Busts

1)      Chris Johnson—Now I’m not saying Johnson is going to have a bad season, I just think he won’t even come close to repeating his fantastic ’09 season.  The Titans line is not going to be great run at blocking, having lost their veteran center Kevin Mawae.  Even if they do somehow manage to be nearly as cohesive, as Kory Kepner points out, no RB has even sniffed his previous year’s production after a 2,000 yard season.  I predict Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice have more fantasy production than Johnson this year and perhaps a few others.  If you have the number one pick, draft at your own peril. 

2)      Michael Turner—The guy simply faces the unfortunate fate of the “Curse of 370”.  Simply put, the curse occurs after a RB is called upon at least 370 times to tote the pigskin, only to have seemed to have been worn down by the great workload.  It’s rare these days a running back faces this heavy of a workload, however. Turner was the last to do so, and I’m sure we all know what happened to him last season.  For statistics and more on the curse, see ESPN’s Tristan Cockcroft’s article, “Revenge of the ‘Curse of 370’”.

3)      Brandon Jacobs—The only booming coming from “Thunder” last year was big burst of his fantasy bubble.  He looked more like the penguin from Happy Feet than the bruising runner we remember from his early days.  I can see his YPC getting a bit of a boost, but with a healthy Ahmad Bradshaw and deteriorating O-line, Jacobs will not get as many touches as he did last season, even if he stays healthy.

4)      LeSean McCoy—“The Sean” will be a shifty, quick cutter that can cause a lot headaches to defenses…eventually.  This isn’t his season though. He had a lot of trouble in pass protection last year, and that’s a huge part of Andy Reid’s West Coast style for his RBs.  Also, having a new QB in Kevin Kolb and a depleted D, the Eagles are going to be scratching out a lot more games this year than they’re accustomed to.  I actually like McCoy’s upside, but there’s so much more value to be had with your 3rd round pick.

5)      Larry Fitzgerald—What can you really say that’s bad about this guy?  He’s a man-beast when it comes to getting to where he needs to be to catch the ball.  He has the ideal balance of size, speed and strength to get open consistently in the NFL.  But his inclusion on this list has more to do with his situation than his skill set.  Losing a QB like Warner, who can hold the ball until the last second and give his receivers extra time to find that soft spot or get past the defense, will hurt Fitz’s value.  To me, Matt Leinart has always seemed to be more concerned with looking like a good QB rather actually being a good QB.  That concerns me enough to not expect the monster numbers Fitzgerald is very capable of posting.  My late first or early second round pick is too valuable to spend on merely a good, not a great season.

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