Long Ball! Power Outage!

By on May 29, 2015

 

Chicks dig the long ball. This much we know! However, in recent memory there has been little for the ladies to get excited about.

Bryce Harper hits a solo home run against the  Giants during the seventh inning of game four of the 2014 NLDS  at AT&T Park. (USA Today Sports / Kelley L. Cox)

Bryce Harper hits a solo home run against the Giants during the seventh inning of game four of the 2014 NLDS at AT&T Park. (USA Today Sports / Kelley L. Cox)

Here’s a look at HR and RBI numbers over the last 20 years…

HR and RBI numbers are on the decline

Alex Rodriguez was once looked at as a “sure thing” to become the all-time home run leader; not anymore!

The interesting thing is that the same praise was once dropped upon the great Albert Pujols. He won’t make it either!

No disrespect to any of the great players right now, but, I don’t see anyone breaking the 755 mark put up by Hank Aaron. Not to mention the “actual” leader, Barry Bonds, and his 762 career dingers.

Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are the two young superstars that garner the most discussion when talking about the home run record books. So, let’s take a look at those two.

Trout has 109 career round-trippers. He is 23 years old. Let’s say that he plays until he is 40, which given the fact that he is a five-tool player, is unlikely. However, if Trout were able to do so he would need to put up 38 bombs every year for the next 17 seasons. Even then, that only ties him with Aaron. Remember, that’s second place! Bonds’ mark would still be seven home runs away. Given that Trout has never clubbed more than 36 homers in a given year, passing Aaron for second place seems very unlikely.

Harper is a year younger than Trout. He plays with as much energy, if not more. So again, playing until age 40 seems unlikely for him too. With a current HR total of 73, the magic number for Harper to reach the 762 mark is also 38 per season, until he is 40 years old.

Now, looking at these two, the edge has to go to Bryce Harper. He seems more likely to make a move to first base or DH, if needed. Plus, his 18 dingers this year put him on pace to surpass the 38 mark. The question is can he put up 40+ homers per season over a several year period? He should see a drop during his late 30’s, thus making it important to crack the 40 mark several times before he turns 30 years of age.

Ok fine, for those of you wondering why I left out Giancarlo Stanton out of the HR king conversation; he needs to average 37 bombs from now until his age 41 season. Given that his contract expires after his age 39 season, with an option for the following year, it is almost a certainty that he will be done playing before he turns hits 41 years of age. Given his contract status, he’d likely need to hit 40 balls into the seats every season. While he is the most likely to consistently reach 40, can you really see him doing it for 15 straight campaigns?

Back to Alex Rodriguez. He is 97 home runs away from Bonds. If, and that’s a big if, A-Rod were to play through the 2018 season, he may have a chance. However, that would make him a 43 year old trying to catch up to 100 mph fastballs.

In order for Pujols to have a chance, he would need to play until at least 2021. Ironically, his contract runs through the end of 2021.

Hmmm!

However, lets be honest here. He would need to average near 40 blasts per season from now until then.

Basically, not going to happen! None of these guys are going to reach the 763 home runs needed to pass Barry Bonds.

So ladies, I hope you are content playing the waiting game. It’s gonna be a while before we have a new HR king!

Check out more from Kris Dunn on Twitter @KrisDunnDV
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